Vahid Aghaie, Corinne Schuster-Wallace (2022). Adaptive Management of Coupled Human-Water Systems. Proceedings of the GWF Annual Open Science Meeting, May 16-18, 2022.

Coupled human and water systems are complex systems incorporating manifold, adaptive, and heterogeneous agents interacting with each other and their environment through bi-directional feedback loops. Any strategy or policy aiming to mitigate an undesirable condition in such complex systems can cause a change in individual-level adaptation processes (i.e. the social system) which in turn impacts the hydrological system. Such two-way feedbacks between the social and hydrological systems result in a variation in the system-level behavior, affecting each other through these loops and evolving toward a more appreciable change in the system. This means that the policy once implemented for a purpose, for instance reducing water insecurity, may not be effective anymore as the system has been changed significantly through time, highlighting the significance of adaptive management. This study develops a coupled agent-based hydrological model accounting for social and hydrological processes to understand how different flood mitigation policies, including non-structural (e.g. early warning systems) and structural (e.g. low impact developments) measures, can be adaptively implemented to reduce flood risks. In particular, this study attempts to understand how policy implementation changes social behaviors, how social values and norms may impact hydrological systems, and how the coupled system co-evolves through two-way feedback loops.

AOSM2022 First Author: Vahid Aghaie, Global Institute for Water Security and Department of Geography and Planning Additional Authors: Corinne Schuster-Wallace, Global Institute for Water Security and Department of Geography and Planning